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Čt 09.01.2020

Alessandro Ferrari (Job Talk) “Global Value Chains and the Business Cycle”

Alessandro Ferrari

European University Institute, Italy
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Author: Alessandro Ferrari

Abstract: In this paper I investigate the role of position in global value chains in the transmission of final demand shocks and the cyclicality and volatility of trade. Relying on a production network model with propagation via procyclical inventory adjustment, I show how shocks can magnify or dissipate upstream. I test the theoretical results empirically using input-output data. I find that industries far from consumers respond to final demand shocks up to twice as much as final goods producers. I also document the critical role of the position in the global value chain for countries’ cyclical macroeconomic response: i) controlling for bilateral similarity in global value chain position eliminates the standard correlation between similarity in industrial structure and bilateral output comovement; ii) two indicators, measuring the number of steps of production embedded in the trade balance and the degree of mismatch between exports and imports, explain between 10% and 50% of the volatility andthe cyclicality of net exports.
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Full Text: “Global Value Chains and the Business Cycle”