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Pá 09.11.2012

Dr. Ferre De Graeve: “Fiscal Policy in Contemporary DSGE Models”

Dr. Ferre De Graeve

Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden

Authors: Ferre De Graeve and V. Queijo von Heideken

Abstract: The role of fiscal policy in DSGE models has long been ignored. Recent evidence from reduced-form VARs (Sims (2011)), event-studies (Leeper et al. (2012)) and structural models (Fernández-Villaverde et al. (2012)) shows that information about fiscal variables can add to macroeconomic models. To strongly convey the point that DSGE models should take fiscal policy seriously, we show that even without any information on fiscal variables standard contemporary DSGE models map historical fluctuations to fiscal policy. We estimate a version of the Smets-Wouters model and show that the model interprets changes in long-term interest rates, unrelated to current short rates, as news about fiscal policy through the effect it may have on future inflation. This interpretation is exactly the one Sims (2011) and Leeper and Walker (2012) argue for.

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